Once in awhile I peer into my greasy crystal ball in the basement of Guitar Ted Laboratories and give you my prognostications on where 29″ers are headed in the future. Here’s my latest thoughts on where the wagon wheelers are going.
The WTB Vulpine will have lots of company come springtime in the racing tread category!
Racing Tires and Wheels: Much like single speed 29″ers were about three years ago, we are about to witness a glut of racing bred rubber and probably a few more weight weenie wheel sets to go along with them. Shoes from Schwalbe, Continental, Bontrager, and Geax are all about to be delivered to the market. By spring time, you should not have any trouble finding a race specific 29″er tire and some wheels to go with them. Remember when they said 29″er wheels and tires were too heavy? Not anymore!
Wanting A Little Meat On That Carcass?: But having said that, the trail/AM crowd should see some developements in 2009 on tires as well. I know that Bontrager is currently testing some tires, one of which is said to be a trail tire with a radical new tread design. I know of the Maxxis Ardent in a wider size, an offering from Geax, and at least two other “behemoth” tires that may see the light of day soon, if not before the end of 2009. Add to this a proliferation of true tubeless ready UST and plain ol’ UST tires in 29 inch sizes and I think you will see at least as many new tires just on the trail/AM side as we saw in 2009 in all categories put together.
Carbon “Fork” Print: There will be a couple of radical new carbon forks coming out that I know about with a possibility of more that I don’t. This is going to be an area of development due to the lack of high end road bike sales. That carbon technology has to go somewhere, and 29″er folks have already shown an affinity for the carbon rigid fork. Look for Niner’s carbon fork to bow soon, maybe as early as this spring. The Soul Cycles carbon fork shouldn’t be long in appearing either.
Carbon fiber will most likely be starting to show up in other places on 29″ers too. Linkages on rear suspensions, suspension forks, and obviously on frames. The economic situation may delay some of this, but it is coming.
Raise The Standard: The Niner W.F.O.9 and the tapered steer tube Marzocchi 44 29″er fork should be showing up in 2009. Niner’s Chris Sugai told me at Interbike that he is sure that all major 29″er fork makers will be on board with the tapered steer tube soon. Fox is already there and Rock Shox, Manitou, and White Brothers are all expected to make the leap to tapered steer tube products for 29″ers. In my opinion, it is a smart move for 29″er front and full suspended bikes.
The BB30 bottom bracket standard, developed by Cannondale, is now a reality on 29″ers with the 2009 Cannondale line. I suspect to see more companies jump on board with this as cranksets become available on the mountain bike side in greater numbers. There also is a BB90 standard with- you guessed it– a 90mm wide bottom bracket shell and “internal external” bearings that is compatible with current two piece cranksets. I do not fore see this becoming widely available though. What I wouldn’t be surprised to see is Shimano coming out with something different along these lines soon to compete with the move to oversize bottom bracket/internal bearing set ups.
The move to this sort of technology will be utilized to market product said to be stiffer and less likely to become contaminated, as outboard bearings are prone to do, with a free spin that outboard bearings can not rival. 29″ers might benefit from a bigger area for down tubes and chain stays to attach to. (Although I’ve been told that this would be a minimal gain for all the trouble.)
The Rock Shox Reba with a Maxle Lite: The beginning of the end for QR’s on 29″ers
Stick A Thru-Axle In It! 2009 is the year that the quick release for mountain bikes is going to start to die off. With the widely available Reba with the new Maxle Lite, 29″er freaks are going to shun QR’s like the plague. Especially after they use one of the Maxle Lites on somebody elses rig. Look for this option to spread to the rear on full suspension bikes first, and eventually hard tails. Will it be the 20mm or 15mm through axle that wins out? Well, I don’t think that will matter if hub makers can keep both camps happy with one hub that features swappable end caps. (My vote is for 20mm though, just so you know!)
Stump Pullin’ Gears: I also look for some new cassettes that feature a 36T low gear. 29″er freaks will not be the only ones looking at this option either. 2 X 9 26″er riders will benefit, as will any rider using a 2X9 or 1X9 set up. Additionally, I see more options popping up on the crank side as well.
She’ll Be Comin’ Down The Mountain: I fore see a long travel fork coming out of one of the big three fork makers soon too. White Brothers have had this market all to themselves until now. With bigger rims, tires, and frame sets hitting the market soon and in bigger numbers, it is going to be just a matter of time before one of the bigger companies pulls this off. What will finally turn the tide? A big OEM contract for a long travel fork for a bigger company that will be bringing out a long travel 29″er AM bike, that’s what. Hold on! It is going to happen, and sooner than later!
Frugal Frames: Already in early 2009 we are seeing some down right el cheapo frames hitting the market. I predict even more will show up before the year is through. With the current popularity of 29″ers and the down turn of the economy, I see some folks jumping in on this market big time. Even full suspension 29″er frames and/or complete bikes will become available.
Bigger companies will also start to offer more sub-grand 29″ers than before too. These bikes were always good sellers when times were good. Now they will be even more attractive. Look for several new additions in this category by Interbike time next fall.
That’s my take, what is yours? Add your thoughts to the comment section. You never know who is reading, and it might become reality some day!
i fore-see fisher coming out with a 120 mm travel hi-fi with the evo rear end from trek before the end of 09. it will have a stiffer rear end and rear tire clearence for 2.4 tires….
A crankset will be released in a compact 20-30-40 set up to compensate for gearing loss due to bigger wheels.
Bionocon and truvativ’s hammerschmit crankset are going to create a rift in the front derrailer world and i think sram is going to come out with an internaly geared rear hub to compliment the hammerschmit crankset. 29rs are here to stay and the industry is catching up to the feeding frenzy at a good pace…there are still many misconceptions about 29ers and its going to take time for the bike population to realise the benefits of big wheels.
Carbon fiber swing arm/fully frame would be Awesome!!
with the 22/36 crank I have now, the 12-36 cassette would Rock!
Informative and interesting, thanks for keeping us in touch with what’s happening.
OK GT…care to elaborate/pontificate/prognosticate on the history driving the BB changes over time? I do not remember ever having bearing issues on the old internal standard, unless the seals were poor. I get the tapered VS. splined interface a bit more…the splined was supposed to provide a positive stop, help with loose fit from ruined tapers, frozen cranks, etc…I think, but that may be my imagination.
How about a timeline of “improvements” on the lowly but needed BB and its related parts and the engineering and or marketing behind the changes? Cheaper to make…easier to OE install…helped with chainline on newer bike designs…product designers forcing a change????
Inquiring minds want to know.
grannygear
Would love the 36T low rear sprocket because I’m not getting any younger but have told so many folks that 1×9 is the shit that I just can’t go back to a front derailleur and save face! That would allow me to “live the dream” for a few more years…
tbaier: Totally agreed. When I was running 1×9 on the Karate Monkey, I would have loved one more low gear. A 36T would be sweet and allow that 1×9 to work juuuust that much more in tough areas.
GT,
Great rundown. Maybe related to your bullet on frugal frames (but maybe not), do you see any sort of “back to basics” trend? I’m thinking Salsa Fargo, Rivendell Bombadill, everything from Rawland, etc. Seems like there’s interest growing in rigid steel MTBs, even geared ones. Appreciate your perspective.
grannygear: Here ya go, Briefly and in my humble opinion: Square Taper bottom bracket- Old, crank arms worked loose occaisionally, and Shimano’s cartridge BB was actually too good! It lasts, and lasts, and lasts……….. Not good for the bottom line. 😉
Shimano introduces the Octalink BB and ISIS comes out with an open standard allowing all other manufacturers to use the design: The Shimano splines were not executed as well as they could have been , but still, the Octalink is one of the better BB cartridges out there. It also was considered not stiff enough by some. ISIS suffered from the get-go from longevity issues. The pipe spindle increased in diameter, while the BB shell stayed the same size. That means the bearings are too small to last any reasonable time without putting some seriously expensive materials and technology inside. (See Crank Brothers and SKF BB’s)
Outboard bearing/two piece cranks: Moving the bearings outside the shell allowed for bigger ball bearings, a wider stance to the bearings, and the stiffer pipe spindle than Octalink or ISIS designs. Bearings generally suffer from excessive seal drag, contamination, and cause a wider pedal stance that some find distasteful.
BB30- Puts the bearings back in the BB shell, albeit a bigger shell. This larger shell requires specific frames, and allows for the bigger, stiffer, lighter spindle with a narrower pedal stance.
To my mind, there are benefits to all of the previous designs, but some serious pitfalls. Someday someone will put it all together in a reasonably priced BB that is free spinning, stiff, and light weight. Currently, the Chris King BB is tops in my mind and comes closest to hitting all the marks. BB30 has potential too, but it will require the whole industry to ditch the European BB shell standard. (Not necessarily a bad thing- just unlikely)
John B: I prefer to call those “Adventuring Bikes”, but I think we’re on the same page. It is getting back to basics when you consider the roots of modern day mountain biking, or “klunking”. Those folks were all about cruising around in the back country, having fun, and getting their kicks by having an adventure. (Pearl Pass on rigid 15 speed mtb’s at the Fat Tire Festival anyone?) Also, see the Rough Riders in California for a great example of a modern day equivalent to that.
I just see a move away from racing and more towards doing the adventure based type rides that some have called “free riding” in the past. (Which turned into “All Mountain” and is labeled as an “epic” ride all to often) Technology, (read: suspension), which most folks are starting to see as something unnecessary with 29″ers, is also a contributing factor. It’s expensive, requires maintenance, and you can never stay on top of the latest.
Now there are exceptions to all of this, but that’s what I see bubbling under the surface with these bikes.
I think front-end geometry still has a ways to go, I could see using a 20mm through-axle fork as an opportunity to build an eccentric front hub, so different offsets can be used without having to manufacture an entirely new fork lower. Forks with bolt-on crowns are another place where this could happen.
The area in the BB/chainstay/front derailleur/rear tire could also use some work. Wider BBs, 2×9, hammerschmidt seem like theyr’e helping address space issues here -I look forward to more, especially for full-sus frames.
With a 120mm or larger fork, I could see someone doing a direct-mount stem to the fork crown to help get the bar height down.
Maybe they’re already doing this, but tubular 29er race tires on carbon rims will happen. (seen it on 26ers and of course cyclocross).
Someone other than Planet Bike will come out with a 29er (60mm wide) fender set.
I just want to see some nice 94/58mm cranks make a little bit of a comeback. It would be nice to see a simple solution to the lower gearing problems along with the 36t cassette. I ride a singlespeed 90% of the mountain biking season and when the snow flies I like a little added ease for plowing through all the snow. Add some extra ease for pushing Gordo weight wheel/tire combos around. For that matter life would be easier if I could run a middle chainring down in the 28/29/30t range to maintain a good chainline throughout that range.
I am running a 34-30t low gear combo and it is a bear towards the end of a 20 miles snow ride. I should put a 32t chainring on and an 11-34t 9spd cassette, I just want to keep using my good old 11-30 XT 8spd cassette.
Surly makes a Mr. whirly crankset that can be put together one piece at a time. A 94/58mm spider is an option and its possibe to run a 20/30/40 ringset up on a niner. middleburn also make a sweet crankset with comperable options.
Addition to Teds comments on bottom brakets, Chris King just came out with an external bb and ive heard its amazing. I think they are here to stay.
I couldn’t agree more with your “BB Historical Timeline”, G-Ted. You hit the main points nicely. I am one of those guys who fought the outboard bearing thing at first, as I too had experienced exceptional lifespan with the Shimano square taper design. However, the stiffness of the outboard configuration is noticable, and a luxury to be appreciated by anyone who has threw a leg back over one of their old square taper spec-ed bikes. One of those things that you don’t notice untill you take a step backward I guess… I would like to see a strong resurgence of the “racing double” crankset. I am aware of FSA’s $500+ offering, but would like to see something in the LX/XT level. Wouldn’t this remedy the whole wide-tire, front derailleur inboard clearance thing? A 29/42T could pair up nicely with the new 36t granny gear cassette for those who appreciate the loooow gears.
I want to see some outboard bearing cranks with a 30mm spindle that interfaces with an english bottom bracket and that have a 94/58mm bolt circle. That would make the gearing issues easier to deal with and make the chainrings stronger. It also would make it possible for frame manufacturers continue to use the english bottom bracket standard while increasing crank stiffness and lowering weight.
I would also love to see a trek evo 29er with 120mm travel.
Will there be an XTR 12-36 cassette as well or only on XT? The same pertains to crankset 20/30/42? Will the 20T be on 58 or 64 bcd?
When will it be available – 2011? Too long to wait.
A bigger Ardent?? Sign me up. I’d put it up front with the current 2.25 out back.
The proposed 36t cassette sounds pretty happening especially with a 1×9 set up or even a modified Jeff Jones 1×4 Franken-cassette.
Personally, I’d love to see more 2.5″ or bigger tires for people, like me, who don’t want to ride a suspension fork. My not too secret dream is to see a 2.5″ version of a Ritchey Z-Max Classic available for a 29″ wheel. That would freakin’ rule.
Although through axle designs have been around for a while I think 29″ wheeled bikes can really benefit from the more secure interface between the wheel and the dropouts – not to mention the possibility of of using larger bearings and taller hub flanges in order to make stiffer, stronger, and longer lasting wheels.
The tapered steer tube deal has some obvious pluses especially when longer travel suspension forks begin to crop up. I’m still not 100% sold on integrated headsets however. Then again it took me about ten years to think index shifting was a good thing too.