Comments on: How Well Do 29″ers Sell? The Answer (or not) An Editorial http://twentynineinches.com/2009/11/03/how-well-do-29ers-sell-the-answer-or-not-an-editorial/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=how-well-do-29ers-sell-the-answer-or-not-an-editorial 29er Bike Reviews, Rumors and News Fri, 25 May 2012 12:03:26 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.2.1 By: Hurst http://twentynineinches.com/2009/11/03/how-well-do-29ers-sell-the-answer-or-not-an-editorial/#comment-62449 Hurst Tue, 10 Nov 2009 15:46:00 +0000 http://twentynineinches.com/?p=3936#comment-62449 As someone who makes his living doing statistics, I can confidently say that a sample of 232 retailers likely is statistically representative of the retailer base as a whole. Knowing Leisure Trends Group, I can say that they would not be in business very long if they didn't follow statistical sampling process (think of it this way, when you read the presidential approval ratings in the newspaper, these are based on a sample of 300 or 500 people the US. Its not like the newspaper or whoever has asked every single 300 million Americans whether they approve of the Prez. - this is the same concept). A sample that size probably has a margin of error of about +/-4.5% (meaning that sales of 29ers from the 4300 dealers are actually somewhere between 0% and 8.5%). If the "sample of retailers" only included retailers who sell 29ers, then their sample would not be valid for measuring the percentage of 29ers in terms of overall mtn bike sales (e.g.. if there are two shops, one sells only one bike, a 29er, and the other sells 50 bikes, but no 29ers, then if we exclude it and say, "29ers are 100% of sales" - that's a totally meaningless number). Anyway, enough with the boring statistical nerdfest... I think your analysis looking at the over $800 price where 29ers are 19% of the market is very interesting. This higher end market is (obviously) large enough to drive the industry to invest in 29ers - I suspect that this is the type of analysis that most mfrs are looking at anyway (they should be). I think @CJ nailed it too - there is a strong regional component driving sales. That's certainly the case in other bike segments, so it would make sense for 29ers as well. As someone who makes his living doing statistics, I can confidently say that a sample of 232 retailers likely is statistically representative of the retailer base as a whole. Knowing Leisure Trends Group, I can say that they would not be in business very long if they didn’t follow statistical sampling process (think of it this way, when you read the presidential approval ratings in the newspaper, these are based on a sample of 300 or 500 people the US. Its not like the newspaper or whoever has asked every single 300 million Americans whether they approve of the Prez. – this is the same concept). A sample that size probably has a margin of error of about +/-4.5% (meaning that sales of 29ers from the 4300 dealers are actually somewhere between 0% and 8.5%).

If the “sample of retailers” only included retailers who sell 29ers, then their sample would not be valid for measuring the percentage of 29ers in terms of overall mtn bike sales (e.g.. if there are two shops, one sells only one bike, a 29er, and the other sells 50 bikes, but no 29ers, then if we exclude it and say, “29ers are 100% of sales” – that’s a totally meaningless number). Anyway, enough with the boring statistical nerdfest…

I think your analysis looking at the over $800 price where 29ers are 19% of the market is very interesting. This higher end market is (obviously) large enough to drive the industry to invest in 29ers – I suspect that this is the type of analysis that most mfrs are looking at anyway (they should be). I think @CJ nailed it too – there is a strong regional component driving sales. That’s certainly the case in other bike segments, so it would make sense for 29ers as well.

]]> By: TJXC http://twentynineinches.com/2009/11/03/how-well-do-29ers-sell-the-answer-or-not-an-editorial/#comment-62384 TJXC Sun, 08 Nov 2009 06:15:47 +0000 http://twentynineinches.com/?p=3936#comment-62384 Half of the front suspension hard tail bikes over $1000 are 29ers? Sounds about right from what I see in my LBSs. Personal revelation 1: I'm over six feet, and never got into mountain biking because the stupid wheels were too small and the bikes all fit funny. But when I got on my very first 29er, the magic was back for me. Personal revelation 2: when my wife gets her next bike, I'm advising a 29er FOR HER. She's 5'8" and can ride a 17" 29er. So why not? I really like it, I expect she will appreciate certain benefits also. It's just a matter of time until the volumes go up and the prices come down so that there are 29ers at every price point, with minimal price penalty. We're not there yet. We will be. 26" wheels really aren't that great for off-road. They'll get to be a solution for folks who are too small for 29". I am really, really, happy that 29ers came along and prodded me back into mountain biking. Half of the front suspension hard tail bikes over $1000 are 29ers? Sounds about right from what I see in my LBSs. Personal revelation 1: I’m over six feet, and never got into mountain biking because the stupid wheels were too small and the bikes all fit funny. But when I got on my very first 29er, the magic was back for me. Personal revelation 2: when my wife gets her next bike, I’m advising a 29er FOR HER. She’s 5’8″ and can ride a 17″ 29er. So why not? I really like it, I expect she will appreciate certain benefits also. It’s just a matter of time until the volumes go up and the prices come down so that there are 29ers at every price point, with minimal price penalty. We’re not there yet. We will be. 26″ wheels really aren’t that great for off-road. They’ll get to be a solution for folks who are too small for 29″. I am really, really, happy that 29ers came along and prodded me back into mountain biking.

]]> By: cloggy http://twentynineinches.com/2009/11/03/how-well-do-29ers-sell-the-answer-or-not-an-editorial/#comment-62380 cloggy Sat, 07 Nov 2009 08:49:43 +0000 http://twentynineinches.com/?p=3936#comment-62380 Well 47% however the figure was arrived at, looks good to me. It's still a tiny niche market in the UK and even further back in mainland Europe. This is the first year that I could walk into a shop and find tyres and tubes. Two out of two in backwoods Powys. One shop's riders had just about all switched. It'll be the enthusiast's shops that lead the way. Big stores are way behind, and I can't see much call for them in the urban hooligan market, which is a big segment in the UK. Well 47% however the figure was arrived at, looks good to me. It’s still a tiny niche market in the UK and even further back in mainland Europe. This is the first year that I could walk into a shop and find tyres and tubes. Two out of two in backwoods Powys. One shop’s riders had just about all switched.
It’ll be the enthusiast’s shops that lead the way. Big stores are way behind, and I can’t see much call for them in the urban hooligan market, which is a big segment in the UK.

]]> By: Dewstir http://twentynineinches.com/2009/11/03/how-well-do-29ers-sell-the-answer-or-not-an-editorial/#comment-62360 Dewstir Fri, 06 Nov 2009 04:14:50 +0000 http://twentynineinches.com/?p=3936#comment-62360 Here in Seattle, it seems that the most shops are not carrying 29ers. Several have tried, but it seems they do not move. You can order one but, no one wants to stock them. This has been a surprise to me, since most of my buddies ride 29ers. I thought it was a growing part of the MTB scene; however It just goes to show that that mainstream bike sales are 26" bikes and it will stay that way for a while. When I'm on the trail with a 29er, and someone figures out I'm riding one, they are pretty interested in what it's all about. I do the PR work to promote the wagon wheels to the interested. I race in the local area and notice that more racers are "getting it". I'm glad for online shops and ebay to fill the void that the LBS miss. Here in Seattle, it seems that the most shops are not carrying 29ers. Several have tried, but it seems they do not move. You can order one but, no one wants to stock them. This has been a surprise to me, since most of my buddies ride 29ers. I thought it was a growing part of the MTB scene; however It just goes to show that that mainstream bike sales are 26″ bikes and it will stay that way for a while. When I’m on the trail with a 29er, and someone figures out I’m riding one, they are pretty interested in what it’s all about. I do the PR work to promote the wagon wheels to the interested. I race in the local area and notice that more racers are “getting it”. I’m glad for online shops and ebay to fill the void that the LBS miss.

]]> By: MG http://twentynineinches.com/2009/11/03/how-well-do-29ers-sell-the-answer-or-not-an-editorial/#comment-62353 MG Fri, 06 Nov 2009 00:22:42 +0000 http://twentynineinches.com/?p=3936#comment-62353 Considering there are five 29ers in my basement, all of which get ridden regularly, and one lonely 26er that never gets ridden anymore, I really don't give a rip what the survey says... We're riding 29ers, it's a sustainable category (meaning, we can have our bikes for as long as we want them -- which is forever), and that's all that really matters. Does anyone at BRAIN actually ride? I think not... I don't even visit their Website anymore. Not worth the time... Considering there are five 29ers in my basement, all of which get ridden regularly, and one lonely 26er that never gets ridden anymore, I really don’t give a rip what the survey says… We’re riding 29ers, it’s a sustainable category (meaning, we can have our bikes for as long as we want them — which is forever), and that’s all that really matters.

Does anyone at BRAIN actually ride? I think not… I don’t even visit their Website anymore. Not worth the time…

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