For those who are not close to, or in the cycling industry, you may not be aware that the industry trade magazine of highest respect in North America is “Bicycle Retailer and Industry News“. (Commonly referred to as “BRAIN”) It sometimes reports on how bikes are selling in North America in certain categories. For several years, 29″ers have been somewhat of an enigma in these reports, because they didn’t have their own separate category that tracked their sales figures.
29″er custom bike sales don’t figure in to the totals at all.
Now, a company that specializes in “specialty retail market intelligence, consumer research, and relationship marketing solutions” called Leisure Trends Group has been tracking sales in the supply channel of bicycles to the retail outlets. This information is available now, not only to retailers, but has been reported in BRAIN in it’s latest issue. BRAIN writes, “One question on everyone’s mind at Interbike was how the 29-inch mountain segment is performing at retail.” That is something a lot of the riders of big wheelers have wondered as well.
Why does that matter? Well, to some it signifies whether or not certain advancements in 29″ers are justified or not. Things like long travel 29″ers, UST tire selection, and more suspension fork choices. The theory is that if the numbers show a big chunk of mountain bike sales are big wheels, then the companies that are into making parts for 29″ers and the companies that are into making complete 29″ers should “up the ante” and give the riders what they are demanding.
So, what do the numbers from this companies research show? Apparently, a panel of 232 U.S. retailers were monitored and the findings were that of all mountain bike sales in the specialty retailer segment, 4% of those units were 29″ers. That’s right folks. 4%. Now, that’s for every mountain bike from the lowest price point to the highest. Of course, we all know that finding a 29″er under a grand is not all that common, so let’s take another look. If we chop off the lower end, below $800.00, the numbers are looking like this: 19% of the market is 29″ers and in this range, if we take only front suspended hard tails, 29″ers are 47% of that pie.
So what? Well, this doesn’t tell us 29″er freaks anything we really already didn’t know. For one thing, viable, readily available “big brand” full suspension bikes in wagon wheeler format are still pretty new. (Fisher FS 29″ers not withstanding) Speaking of Fisher, their own numbers indicate that the 29″er format really didn’t pick up a ton of steam for them until 2007, only two years ago. So it shouldn’t be a shock as to why certain segments are not showing up yet in this one particular companies survey.
Then there is the survey itself, which consisted of what is reported as “232 U.S. retailers”. The National Bicycle Dealers Association reports that there are approximately “4300 specialty retailers selling bicycles” One has to wonder then if the 232 retailers sampled are a representative field of retailers that even sell 29″ers. Obviously the chance for the sales figures of 29″ers to “slip through the cracks” of this survey are rather high.
The manufacturers seem to have a different idea on the numbers. While out at the Interbike Outdooor Demo, it was easy to see that several companies had invested thousands of dollars of research and development into bringing some pretty impressive 29 inch wheeled product to market. Hardly a move one would suspect if the numbers of 29″ers sold are as meager as the survey suggests they are. Especially in the full suspension market. My guess is that this first glimpse into what the numbers of 29″er sales are is just a vague, foggy one.
Finally, I would suggest that if what I am observing has any veracity, then I would say that there is nothing much to this survey. My feeling looking around is that the future of 29″ers looks pretty bright, no matter what the number crunching wonks may say.
How well do 29ers sell? Well when I ordered my 2010 Fisher Hi-Fi last week, the delivery date is now the first week of January 2010. The week before I ordered, the delivery dates were slated for mid-November. At least for Fisher, demand appears to be outstripping supply!!
I would suspect the 232 retailers are far from representative. That’s not many stores, to begin with. And in what regions are these retailers? From all over the country? Chain stores or mom n pops? I would guess in Colorado the 29er proportion is much higher than in Florida. Heck there’s at least 4 29ers on my block in Northern CO. Two of those might count as custom tho since they’re boutique brands.
What about the big internet retailers? They probably sell as many bikes as several brick n mortar stores combined. There’s just not enough info for this to be a good sample. Hope it’s not widely used as evidence for or against 29ers.
200 dicks sporting goods and 32 rei stores i bet!
In my lil town in WVa-we have 2 shops. Mine does only 29ers-from the frame up-Vassago,Voodoo,etc. The other? Trek,Fisher,Cannondale-mostly road,doesnt care/know mtb-doesnt belive in 29ers-only know of 1 or 2 ever sold there. So here in Southern WV -my shop 100%. The other-less than 2% or so…
Bz
How 29′ers sell at the current point in time is nothing more than a baseline.
Think of it this way. There weren’t many 29′er frames, bikes, or 29′er-specific parts a scant 5 or 6 years ago. Look at all that are available now…especially with regards to components.
That development only points toward greater future sales of 29′ers. They got this far on a wing and a prayer. They’ll go further now based on good design and no compromise componentry.
All in all, I’d say future sales of 29′ers are only more promising.
Been seeing a 29er sitting on the racks at wally world this summer. that should say something, eh?
The numbers are VERY good. Give yourself a pat on the back GT. Your advocacy work has helped to move mountains!
Going by the group rides that we have. The 29er thing is growing pretty good. Hosting Club rides that invite other clubs. I notice that close to 1/3 of the bikes there are 29ers. The thing to pay attention to, is what NEW bikes are showing up. Those with “good” 26ers aren’t going to run out and just buy a 29er. But when the time comes, it appears that more and more of them are giving them a try. In my club alone. The last batch of new bikes that were bought by members we’re all 29ers except for one. A woman in her 50′s who just got such a great deal on a 26er that she jumped on it. But she is now wondering if she shouldn’t have gone with a 29er.
I also find that some are just “resistant” to change. One club has a bunch of members that bad mouths 29ers because the Prez got one and bragged it up so much that he became an annoyance to them. So, a bunch of them are just ANTI 29ers now, refusing to give in. It will be curious to see what they buy the next time it is time to buy a new bike.
Me, I have a estimated arrival date of Nov. 16 for my Gary Fisher Rumblefish, and I can’t wait to get on a big wheeler and ride.
Life (and mountain biking) is easier with the 29er. In fact, when I rode a 26 inch bike 4 years ago I couldn’t stomach Tapatio Hot Sauce at all. Now I eat it on almost everything. Thank you 29ers!
@ t0M: I agree with, “where are these shops located?” In the mid west we seem to be seeing more and more 29ers. Locally – it seems – that people are buying 29ers for their first mountain bike versus a 26 inch bike. If we had more entry level 29ers (around $300) that number would be even bigger.
Good point on watching for what ‘new’ bikes folks are buying. I know I have been in influence in the groups that I ride in, but mostly on the big and tall guys. 2 of them, both well over 6′ tall, have gone to big wheels on their new rides but they were born to ride 29ers.
But, I know that there are at least three other guys that are right at or just under 6′ tall that are planning on a 29er for their next purchase and I think that is more significant.
grannygear
In the last few months I have called or visited my local bike shops here in the Washington DC area inquiring about different FS 29er bikes. I came away with the fact that the FS 29er market here has not started, as these shops do not stock them. I also contacted a local Santa Cruz dealer and asked about when the Tallboy was going to be available. The shop rep had not even heard of that bike. I wasn’t surprised by that. The hard tail SS 29er segment however, appears to be gaining some popularity.
Maybe sales of 29ers can be regional, as well as rider specific. What I mean is that here in the plains there seems to be a core group of 29er riders, but those riders are enthusiastic bike riders who I would label as high end users. I would place this group of folks into a class similar to those people who play other sports such as Golf and spend hunderds of dollars on drivers, shoes, and golf bags.
As well, I think that us plains states folks, and the folks of the midwest states are big people. I mean our make up is of Northern European heritage. When I was in the military many of my friends who were from the coasts talked about how people from states like Nebraska, Iowa, Kansas and so forth are big people. I am certainly not suggesting that tall and big folks don’t come from other states as well. That would be very ignorant of me. But what I am saying is that our guys riding 29er here are generally around the 6 foot tall make, with many of these guys weighing in between 175-200lbs. Certainly much bigger and heavier than a professional bike racer from what I know about the body types of pro racers.
So, I guess I feel like 29er just make sense for us. I suppose the next assessment could be just how big the demographic that I describe is and how much money persons in that demographic are willing to spend.
But anyways….
Not sure which is more troubling, that you:
A) Have actually read BRAIN
B) Having read BRAIN, consider it an even vaguely trust worthy source of info.
@Meta: So, what is your source for “more reliable industry news”?
Considering there are five 29ers in my basement, all of which get ridden regularly, and one lonely 26er that never gets ridden anymore, I really don’t give a rip what the survey says… We’re riding 29ers, it’s a sustainable category (meaning, we can have our bikes for as long as we want them — which is forever), and that’s all that really matters.
Does anyone at BRAIN actually ride? I think not… I don’t even visit their Website anymore. Not worth the time…
Here in Seattle, it seems that the most shops are not carrying 29ers. Several have tried, but it seems they do not move. You can order one but, no one wants to stock them. This has been a surprise to me, since most of my buddies ride 29ers. I thought it was a growing part of the MTB scene; however It just goes to show that that mainstream bike sales are 26″ bikes and it will stay that way for a while. When I’m on the trail with a 29er, and someone figures out I’m riding one, they are pretty interested in what it’s all about. I do the PR work to promote the wagon wheels to the interested. I race in the local area and notice that more racers are “getting it”. I’m glad for online shops and ebay to fill the void that the LBS miss.
Well 47% however the figure was arrived at, looks good to me. It’s still a tiny niche market in the UK and even further back in mainland Europe. This is the first year that I could walk into a shop and find tyres and tubes. Two out of two in backwoods Powys. One shop’s riders had just about all switched.
It’ll be the enthusiast’s shops that lead the way. Big stores are way behind, and I can’t see much call for them in the urban hooligan market, which is a big segment in the UK.
Half of the front suspension hard tail bikes over $1000 are 29ers? Sounds about right from what I see in my LBSs. Personal revelation 1: I’m over six feet, and never got into mountain biking because the stupid wheels were too small and the bikes all fit funny. But when I got on my very first 29er, the magic was back for me. Personal revelation 2: when my wife gets her next bike, I’m advising a 29er FOR HER. She’s 5’8″ and can ride a 17″ 29er. So why not? I really like it, I expect she will appreciate certain benefits also. It’s just a matter of time until the volumes go up and the prices come down so that there are 29ers at every price point, with minimal price penalty. We’re not there yet. We will be. 26″ wheels really aren’t that great for off-road. They’ll get to be a solution for folks who are too small for 29″. I am really, really, happy that 29ers came along and prodded me back into mountain biking.
As someone who makes his living doing statistics, I can confidently say that a sample of 232 retailers likely is statistically representative of the retailer base as a whole. Knowing Leisure Trends Group, I can say that they would not be in business very long if they didn’t follow statistical sampling process (think of it this way, when you read the presidential approval ratings in the newspaper, these are based on a sample of 300 or 500 people the US. Its not like the newspaper or whoever has asked every single 300 million Americans whether they approve of the Prez. – this is the same concept). A sample that size probably has a margin of error of about +/-4.5% (meaning that sales of 29ers from the 4300 dealers are actually somewhere between 0% and 8.5%).
If the “sample of retailers” only included retailers who sell 29ers, then their sample would not be valid for measuring the percentage of 29ers in terms of overall mtn bike sales (e.g.. if there are two shops, one sells only one bike, a 29er, and the other sells 50 bikes, but no 29ers, then if we exclude it and say, “29ers are 100% of sales” – that’s a totally meaningless number). Anyway, enough with the boring statistical nerdfest…
I think your analysis looking at the over $800 price where 29ers are 19% of the market is very interesting. This higher end market is (obviously) large enough to drive the industry to invest in 29ers – I suspect that this is the type of analysis that most mfrs are looking at anyway (they should be). I think @CJ nailed it too – there is a strong regional component driving sales. That’s certainly the case in other bike segments, so it would make sense for 29ers as well.