Bouncing Into The Future With Big Wheels
October 22nd, 2007 by Guitar TedNow that it’s been awhile since Interbike and all the product introductions have passed, it’s time to take a look at what we are missing and where 29″er full suspension might go from here.
Before the show I thought there were two areas that the 29″er would move into: sub $1000.00 retail bikes and full suspension. While the less expensive 29″er did make an appearance the full suspension introductions were fewer and perhaps less noticed. There were bikes from KHS, Kona, and Niner that made some news, but the full suspension category for 29″ers is still has a way to go yet.
I think there are two reasons for that. One: The fork manufacturers just didn’t quite get the product out in time for ‘08. Of course, Fisher had the rights to Fox’s efforts and it is rumored that they partially funded that effort. So, they got a head start on the field to a degree here. Manitou, which had shown forks as early as February of this year and had prototype forks at Interbike last year, was caught up in the buyout and subsequent moving of their manufacturing facilities and offices by the Hayes Bicycle Group. This obviously will put off any OEM Manitou business until later, probably for the ‘09 season.
In the meantime, SRAM/Rock Shox has been sitting in the catbird seat with the Reba basically unchanged since it’s introduction. However; with all the shade tree tinkering going on with the Reba’s internals, I would suspect that SRAM/Rock Shox will not be sitting still long. In fact, I would wager that something new is already in the works. I look for a long travel platform from Rock Shox to appear in the rumor mill/spy photo circles anyday now with a introduction at Sea Otter next spring. If they don’t, the fork market is going to start looking elsewhere for it’s longer travel/stiffer chassis fix and I’m thinking SRAM isn’t about to let that happen.
Until longer travel forks become available to the manufacturers, it doesn’t make a lot of sense to get into the full suspension market for 29″ers beyond doing an XC/trail rig here and there. That said, I think next year’s Sea Otter and Interbike shows will have more full suspension 29″ers from more companies that don’t already have one in their line ups.
Secondly, the full suspension designs themselves are not really quite dialed in yet for 29″ers. I see some designs that just don’t work at all and others that are marginal at best. Usually this seems to be an example of trying to apply 26 inch solutions to a 29 inch problem. Those that have invested in the proper research and developement have shown that a 29″er full suspension rig is a viable platform. Those that have applied their 26″er rigs design to a 29″er will most likely pale in comparison. A couple of rides at the Outdoor Demo proved this out for me.
An area that I find surprising for the lack of bikes on offer is the soft tail 29″er. Salsa has been the only player in the field besides the boutique builders for several years now. With the combination of the bigger wheels, a bit of rear wheel suspension, and simple to care for design, you’d have thought that a bigger company would have jumped on this idea already. I’m thinking that with the popularity of endurance racing on 29″ers growing, the simple yet effective soft tail 29″er will find a place in somebodies line for ‘09. In the meantime, Salsa and boutique companies like Moots and Siren will have their salad days with this format.
I’ve already touched on the longer travel 29″ers and naysayers aside, this is another category that will see more developement in the next year. Depending on what SRAM does for a new fork and how Fox and Manitou see the market developing, I wouldn’t be surprised to see long travel 29″ers being ridden at the Outdoor Demo next year already.
Whatever ends up becoming reality, I’m quite sure it will include more ways to bounce on 29″er wheels than ever before.
What is RSS?
Get our articles in your inbox:
Lack of softtails- attribute that to the “bigger is better” american mindset. (1″ isn’t enough)
There aren’t even that many 26″ softtails are there? I’ve never ridden one, but how much of a difference does that 1″ or 1.5″ of rear travel on a softail vs. a well built hardtail 29er? Is it that big of a difference to warrant the extra maintenance/set up of having such a rear softail shock?
Just curious more than anything.
MMcG,
Imagine, a soft/long travel susp. post.
Speaking for myself, I have spinal issues, and that 1″ of travel is enough to make riding the hard stuff or long rides comfortable, I would prefer a soft tail if they weren’t so damn expensive!
The price issue is a key thing. why not get more travel from say a Voodoo Canzo or Astrix Monk vs. the 1″ from a softail that might cost as much or more.
From my point of view, I have the birth defect Spina bifida, which means not only back problems, but weaker legs, un-developed nerves and bad balance.
with longer travel, not only is there less prower trainsfer, which I don’t need because of my weaker legs, but also longer travel means being less connected, which goes against the un-developed nerves and bad balance.
MMcG: If you have ot riden a soft tail, it’s hard to describe just what it is that’s going on other han to say hat your body isn’t geting beat up as much and he tire tends to track a bit better than a hardtails. Service? Maintenance? Non-issues with my Dos Niner. Expensive? Umm, a Dos can be had for a grand, for the frame, brand new. 29″er FS is more than that for most decent designs.
Imagine if somebody like Kona, Marin, or Raleigh picked up on this idea. I’m thinking a complete for under $1500.00 wouldn’t be out of the question.
Again, as has been said by several folks, it ain’t no FS, three plus inch boinger bike, but it does a lot to save the body while in or out of the saddle and hooks up your rear tire that little bit more than a hardtail. It’s simplicity of design is attractive to enduro freaks- less to go wrong, less to maintain. I see it as an untapped niche within the niche!
Oh yeah, a couple of things. #1: Bad key board here at work, sorry about the missing letters!
#2: Another “it’s” vioalation! Sorry! Bad habit……..hard to break!
KHS was making reasonably priced 26″-wheeled softaills for a time and now they have some 29er hardtails. If anyone else is going to make one, my money is on them.
I like the KHS design, but I have a feeling that it was “affordable” yet short lived for 1 reason, it was chromo. All the most successful softtails are scandium or Ti, and I don’t think KHS high-end enough to produce a frame of those metals.
I’d like to try one sometime. Anyone in CT got a Dos Niner? They aren’t all that common round these parts unfortunately.
Soft tails definitely take the sting out of the trail, but not many non boutique builders make them for 26″ bikes let alone 29ers. Trek used to make a cool carbon soft tale, but it is gone. I am 99% certain that Fisher, Giant and Specialized do not make any 26″ softtails, and I am pretty sure that none of the Pacific Bicycle group brands have a soft tail. I the major brands are not doing soft tails for 26″ bikes, it is unlikely that they are on the list of things to do for big hoops.
I think it would be interesting to know what percentage of overall bicycle sales last year were 29ers, it would also be interesting to know what the percentage of hifi 26″ to 29er sales. I have to believe that manufacturers will be watching the hifi 29er sales closely to determine whether or not they want to move into the 29er full suspension trail bike market. I think 29er fans frequently forget that the market drives development much more than good technology. We have had FS options with the leviathan, 292/293, niner and other bikes without the manufacturers of the vast majority of bicycles sold on the planet having any desire to enter the competitive mix. If Fisher does not move enough hifi 29ers to motivate the bean counters at other major manufacturers to green light development and marketing, the full suspension 29ers may not materialize as quickly as one would like.
Vic: Interesting take there. Thanks for your comments. I would counter by saying that while it may be that companies are watching the HiFi as an indicator, in the meantime Salsa’s best seller is the Dos, and Salsa is basically the only player in the market with a bike like this. I would also like to point out that comparing 26″er softails or lack thereof to 29″er softails and their market demand is not really a good comparo. Endurance freaks are not into 26″er soft tails because that doesn’t really work as a format like a 29″er soft tail does. It’s all in the combination of the big rear wheel and the small amount of cush in the suspension design. Also keep in mind that “soft tail” can mean anything from a miniscule amount of travel all the way up to three inches. (La Ruta 29″er as an example). That’s a significant amount of travel.
What Giant, Specialized, or Trek do is not of concern here. It’s the second tier of companies that can move quicker, and fill a niche that could be the movers. Will anything become of it? I’m betting somebody will give it a try. Going back to bean counters watching Fisher: I think this new Siren project, the “Song” 29″er soft tail, will be the one that raises some eyebrows. Time will tell.
I just bought a GF Supercaliber 29er - 2007.
I wanted to buy the HiFi 29er, but my window of buying opportunity, (i traveled to the USA - michigan my home town for one week in september) plus the major discount on ‘last years’ (even though its still 2007) supercal model made the price irresistable. Having 20/20 hindsight as i do, this was probably a bit of a mistake as the supercal is not a really “cross-country - Trailbike/all mountain” oriented as much as i had hoped. The very very very rocky trails here make it feel darn right fragile. Back to the subject - when i was shopping around for my full susser 29er (this is also my first 29er and first full susser), i DID have options, including the specialized…(kinda priced outta my universe though). The pickings really aren’t as slim as you guys are making it out to be. And DO NOT discount the Slingshot Farmboy 29er as a softail alternative. Its definately worth a test ride (especially if you live in michigan there HQ are there…) and it is reasonably priced. All that said, i still love my supercal and its spec’d to the teeth considering its price….
I’ll second the Slingshot Farmboy vote. That fiberglass spring in the back not only gets you up hills you previously weren’t managing, but the slight cush it provides really smooths out the trail. I rode one this summer at the BWB and couldn’t let it go. IMO, the star of the show-especially for those over 6′. It’s similar to the Dos in the cush catagory but not as vague in back. More hooked up and dialed in. Can’t say enough good about it. It may be different, but that’s not all bad!
Ted,
I can’t really agree that the major manufacturers are not of concern in product development. The major players account for the majority of bike sales and therefore drive product development. Without out of pocket cash and Treks massive buying power, we would not have any forks from Fox. The Fox forks only exist because of major manufacturer influence. I think it is relatively safe to assume that the Reba was developed because Trek/Fisher was able to move enough units with the old Marzuchi to get another company interested.
A specific area where a lack of 29er sales by major manufacturers still leaves us short is cranksets, which are passable in the Midwest, but are not properly geared for riding in steep mountain areas. The small ring is too big and leaves us two cogs short of 26″ bikes. I can order a custom ring, but many riders are not interested in that route. I have heard more riders mention the gearing as a deal breaker in Colorado than you might imagine. I am convinced it hurts 29er sales significantly as I notice a much lower percentage of 29ers in the mountains than I do in flatter regions. If the big players start selling a significant number of 29ers, Shimano might feel the market pressure required to make a new crank and rings for us, otherwise they will continue to ignore us.
As I said in my previous post, the market, not superior technology drives development. Big companies have big marketing departments and big inventories at big stores, component makers recoup development costs by selling their wares to those big companies. Smaller companies may be able to take risks with ideas, but when those ideas need components from other manufacturers, they are slow to respond.
You can bet if Specialized requests a 5″ 29er fork it will arrive much more quickly than if Salsa, Lenz, Moots, and Intense combined make the same request.
I have posted in this forum before that without Fisher, we would have very few component choices and I still believe that to be true. Many of us who ride 29ers seem to be early adopters who like to work outside of conventions, so, I think it is hard for us to swallow that we are dependent in any way on big manufacturings influence. However, the truth is because of shared sizing standards, few drivetrain manufacturers and complex expensive to develop suspension systems, the big corporations are the dog that wags the tail whether we like it or not.
I’d also argue the point regarding endurance freaks and their love of 26″ soft tails, but I have said enough for now.
Vic; Big reply here. I’m going to insert my remarks after your quotes. Again, thank you for your considered opinions.
[QUOTE] I can’t really agree that the major manufacturers are not of concern in product development. The major players account for the majority of bike sales and therefore drive product development. Without out of pocket cash and Treks massive buying power, we would not have any forks from Fox. The Fox forks only exist because of major manufacturer influence. I think it is relatively safe to assume that the Reba was developed because Trek/Fisher was able to move enough units with the old Marzocchi to get another company interested.[/QUOTE]
Ah! But why would a major manufacturer get into the market in the first place? It’s a case of “the chicken and the egg” to a degree, in my opinion. For example, White Brothers were more of an influence than Marzocchi in terms of 29″ers. Market demand was created by folks clamoring for those early WB forks, and wishing for better/more. I would counter that Fisher, seeing this, lobbied Trek honches to move on getting Rock Shox to manufacture a 29″er Reba. Once everybody saw the performance value in the Reba, and sales took off, the next step was getting Fox to bite. The 29″er forums on the internet were rife with requests for a Fox 29″er fork. This motivated Fisher to convince Fox to get on board as well. So, you see the whole enchilada was a step by step process initiated by the failure of Marzhocci on one hand and the ingenuity of a small independent manufacturer on the other. Sure, major manufacturers “ended up” getting on board, but by no means were the innovators. That will happen with the long travel bikes, just like it did with 29″ers in the first place.
[QUOTE] A specific area where a lack of 29er sales by major manufacturers still leaves us short is cranksets, which are passable in the Midwest, but are not properly geared for riding in steep mountain areas. The small ring is too big and leaves us two cogs short of 26″ bikes. I can order a custom ring, but many riders are not interested in that route. I have heard more riders mention the gearing as a deal breaker in Colorado than you might imagine. I am convinced it hurts 29er sales significantly as I notice a much lower percentage of 29ers in the mountains than I do in flatter regions. If the big players start selling a significant number of 29ers, Shimano might feel the market pressure required to make a new crank and rings for us, otherwise they will continue to ignore us.[/QUOTE]
Vic, here you finally go from “big manufacturers” to the real source of your complaint, Shimano. It’s well documented throughout mountain bike history how Shimano has frustrated the “needs” of the average mountain biker. Gearing in particular has been a source of debate for over 20 years. This new complaint from some 29″er guys in a market that is a small slice of mountain biking is going to be hard to see on Shimano’s radar. Heck, I’d argue that the BCD (bolt circle diameter) of current cranks is unnecessary and a hindrance not only for 29″er freaks, but all mountain bikers. If the complaint is seen as a segment wide complaint: not just a 29″er specific thing, then I think you will see some movement on this point.
Reality is that Shimano dictates to all manufacturers, big and small, what is “current standard technology”. It’s the antitheses of a market driven company, and not really applicable to my points.
[QUOTE] As I said in my previous post, the market, not superior technology drives development. Big companies have big marketing departments and big inventories at big stores, component makers recoup development costs by selling their wares to those big companies. Smaller companies may be able to take risks with ideas, but when those ideas need components from other manufacturers, they are slow to respond.[/QUOTE]
I see this remark as being a bit confused, Vic. Yes, “the market” (peoples desires) does drive the development of new technologies…..sometimes (See Shimano, above). I think that companies then respond to perceived demands with technologies suitable to satisfy those demands. However; when a superior technology emerges, often times the market for it is created. So, it works both ways depending upon the situation at hand. I think that in terms of mountain biking, it can be shown over and over again how one product is developed and then bigger companies take that idea, refine it, and call it their own. (Specialized being a prime example of this.)
[QUOTE] You can bet if Specialized requests a 5″ 29er fork it will arrive much more quickly than if Salsa, Lenz, Moots, and Intense combined make the same request.[/QUOTE]
No, I would say it’s definitely the other way around. As I have said, it is because these second tier companies are doing things that the bigger companies end up doing it, at least most of the time.
[QUOTE] I have posted in this forum before that without Fisher, we would have very few component choices and I still believe that to be true.[/QUOTE]
I’m assuming you mean “29″ers-29″er component choices”" and not the generic term. At any rate, I heartily disagree. Fisher did get the deal done…..eventually; however, the market was moving forward with or without Fisher. Keep in mind that early on, (2002-2004) Fisher dealers didn’t even understand the 29″er concept, nor did most of them stock the bikes. It wasn’t until small custom niche builders and small innovators like Surly and On One started to satisfy higher demands for 29″er products that Trek head John Burke was convinced to throw more marketing weight behind Fisher. While Fisher can ultimately be credited here, it wasn’t a foundation that the company laid. That foundation has to be credited elsewhere.
[QUOTE] Many of us who ride 29ers seem to be early adopters who like to work outside of conventions, so, I think it is hard for us to swallow that we are dependent in any way on big manufacturings influence. However, the truth is because of shared sizing standards, few drivetrain manufacturers and complex expensive to develop suspension systems, the big corporations are the dog that wags the tail whether we like it or not.[/QUOTE]
My conclusion is obviously different. Again, big companies don’t always drive the market. Many times it is the opposite. Even with restrictive options in drive trains, suspension,and other “standards”, 29″ers have not only gained a foothold, but are flourishing. I wouldn’t at all be surprised to see smaller companies ideas become adopted in terms of 29″er full suspension by bigger companies and be called “innovations” by them. Either way, it’s going to happen and soon!
[QUOTE]I’d also argue the point regarding endurance freaks and their love of 26″ soft tails, but I have said enough for now.[/QUOTE]
Yes, that’s a whole nuther subject!
There are few forks in our sport we do NOT have to thank Fisher for.
The Marzocchi’s (2001) were made because Fisher ordered a lot of them. when Fisher switched to RockShox, Marzocchi quit.
The Reba’s were also a Fisher deal. Even a Fisher-exclusive deal for the 2004 season, at least in 29″.
Now Fox, came on board only because of Fisher also. The 51mm offset version is an exclusive for Fisher, the 44mm version they added when they realized others are making money on 29″ers, being confronted with Fisher’s huge committed order.
And Manitou, they seem to also have been getting into 29″ because hopes for a deal with Fisher. It was clear that the reba’s would lose they “newness” factor at some point. It seems they were unable to tickle Fisher sufficiently. Then, they’re spoiled with the Reba’s performance.
What do i expect to happen in the 2008 and 2009 seasons?
Many brands on board now. Each has a couple models on offering. I’m expecting most of them will sell above their own expectation, little or no end-of-season discounting required.
For next season, they’ll add one or more 29″ models, and increase pre-ordered volumes, to not be left behind.
Brands still holding out, will see the competition striving, and will sell a lot of “no’s” to customers at demo’s and in shops. How can those others sell the big ugly bikes at such a low effort? weird, no-one in our company rides one… Time to swallow it, and think outside the regular box. Or budget a yearly 10-20% loss in sales.
OK Ted,
I don’t want to do this forever (though it is fun) and please forgive me if I am wrong, but in this case did not Gary Fisher (Big company guy) and Mark Slate of WTB get the 29er ball rolling the first place? I vaguely remember linking to a blog from this site where the two of them were in an audio interview patting themselves on the back about their accomplishment. Again, it was a while ago and I could be wrong, but in this case, if I am right, the big manufacturer created the market. You could call it chicken and the egg, but I have think that the Fisher chicken was born from space dust and 29er fork demand came from the first egg If Fisher does not do 29ers, there are no forks, not from White Brothers or anybody else.
The WB fork might have created the competition that forced Fisher to get a better vendor, but Fisher created the market. That is the interesting thing with markets, they can be created without previous consumer demand, if a company has the presence and horsepower to do so. Before Fisher entered the 29er business, there was no 29er business and consumers were not asking for one.
As Cloxxki says. “There are few forks in our sport that we do NOT have to thank Fisher for.”
I would take it further and say that. “There are NO forks that we do NOT have to thank Fisher for.” One or two are just indirect.
Ted I will do my best to give you the last word (not an easy task for me).
GT, I’m going to have to agree with Vic a bit on his point regarding the big guys having more pull with the necessary manufacturers.
Salsa is one of the small fish. There are a lot of other small fish in the pond too. We just don’t have the influence to get things done the way the really large companies do.
That’s not to say that we don’t influence things. There are times when non-competing component manufacturers ask for our opinions on future product direction. But we just don’t have such direct and dramatic influence as to convince a fork maker come up with a new product.
Fun discussion though. Beautiful fall weather here right now which is about to prompt me to take another vacation day tomorrow! Get out and ride everybody!
Vic: Well, your example works, sort of. You see, the main protagonists of the Nanoraptor/29″er scene were all on board with the whole idea years before “The Tire” was made. The sticking point to getting what they all knew would be a great product was that tire. Of course, we all know that without the promises of Gary Fisher getting his company to make 29″er bikes with those tires the movement would have been thwarted to some degree.
However; it’s interesting to note that the first run of Nanos was super small and the whole thing could have gone away and not been heard about again if it wasn’t for some very passionate individuals not associated with “big companies” (Certainly no one would ever mistake Wes Williams’ Willits Bikes as a big company!)
I truly think that the 29″er would have happened one way or the other, with or without Gary Fisher on board. The company that bears his name certainly lent some early credibility to 29″ers, that is for sure.
Take a look at Kirk Pacenti and the whole 650B thing for another example of what I mean. Of course, 650B won’t go far if a big manufacturer doesn’t get behind it, but you certainly have to agree that Mr. Pacenti is single handedly creating a new niche in mountain biking.